Following from my e-mail commentary on Saturday titled ‘Japanese Earthquake Aftermath?’ I continue to believe this event could prove to be a macro-economic game-changer.  I have found the following articles written over the past two days that I think worthwhile to bring to your attention:

·        ‘The world’s nuclear fate rests in Japan’ – reading time 3 minutes.  While arguably extreme, the article discusses the possible negative effect on the nuclear power industry of the Japanese nuclear reactor issues in the aftermath of Friday’s earthquake.  I have little doubt, irrespective of how this issue ultimately turns out, that any number of people in any number of countries will over-react, thus setting the nuclear power industry back on its heels from where it was last Thursday;

·        ‘What next for Japan’ – reading time 2 minutes.  The article suggests that the Yen may continue to weaken, that the costs of rehabiliation will bring the ‘tipping point’ for a “hugely indebted” Japan that much closer, and that some disruption in global trade will occur as factories in Japan shut down with a threat of ‘rolling blackouts’ ahead (resulting from disruption to Japanese electricity supply).  Importantly, the article suggests that “it’s hard to see how this (the loss of about 20% of Japan’s nuclear capacity) can be positive for global energy supply/demand” in the long run.  It also raises the same nuclear ‘safety’ and nuclear industry ‘trust’ issues suggested in the previous article.  The article suggests the greatest benefactor arising from the nuclear aspect of this tragedy could be natural gas;

·        ‘Japan Earthquake: Impact on Crude Oil, Fuel and Nuclear Power’ – reading time 3 minutes.  This article again deals with energy supply and nuclear credibility issues, but with respect to crude oil does so in some detail;

·        ‘Japan’s Nuclear Morality Tale’ – reading time 3 minutes.  This article is focused entirely on the impact of the north-east Japan nuclear issues arising out of Friday’s earthquake.  As I read the article the important point it makes is a generic statement that could have been made last Thursday before Friday’s earthquake event, being that: “The central dilemma of nuclear power in an increasingly water-stressed world is that it is a water guzzler, yet vulnerable to water. And, decades after Lewis L. Strauss, the Chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Agency, claimed that nuclear power would become “too cheap to meter,” the nuclear industry everywhere still subsists on munificent government subsidies”;

·         ‘Global Recovery Fraud Is Kaput’ – reading time 3 minutes.  While in my view not particularly well titled, this article stresses (1) the Japanese earthquake will disrupt production by a key global exporter, (2) the event will ‘nudge’ Japan (a major world economy) into financial crisis, and (3) will cause supply/demand imbalances in critical materials and grains.  These things all intuitively make sense to me.  The article mentions other factors its author(s) see happening, but personally I don’t link those things with the situation currently unfolding in Japan; and,