I think you have asked the correct question, in that you have asked for a view as to what the 'trend in the gold price' is likely to be, and not what a 'price target' for gold might be.  Many commentators suggest that the price of gold will be at U.S.$X or U.S.$Y at some pre-determined future date.  I think that is nothing more than pure speculation, and not worth paying attention to.  That said, I do think that one can sensibly speak to the 'trend price' of physical gold in the context of their views as to the prospects for each of the 'principal drivers of the physical gold price' which include prospective macro-economic conditions in all the aspects of that, prospective inter-country strive, prospective terrorism threats, gold supply and demand issues, etc.  You can see my answer as to what I believe to be the principal drivers of the gold price if you read my answer to the question in this Gold Industry Forum titled 'What Are The Principal Drivers of the Price of Physical Gold'.