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Ian R. Campbell  -  Mar 18 12:56 PM 66 Posts 1 Follower 0 Following
Japan Update - 03/18

The following articles have been published over the past 24 hours that I think worthwhile to bring to your attention:

·        'World May Struggle to Make Up for Lost Japanese Exports' - reading time 3 minutes.  This article suggests that it may not be easy for companies in other parts of the world to make up for Japanese exports  that will be unavailable as a result of damaged plants, supply chain disruptions, and rolling electrical blackouts arising from the Japanese earthquake - this in circumstances where company inventories are low.  The article suggests this may affect, in particular, some electrical components (semi-conductors) and some specialty metals, chemicals, plastics and rubber;

·        'Japanese Politician Suggests Closing Financial Markets For A Week' - reading time 1 minute.  While I think such a thing is unlikely to happen, I include it only because it reflects a level of concern apparently expressed by the head of Japan's Upper House yesterday, and it is the type of scenario painted by some of what I think are the more extreme commentators on the type of political decisions that may be made in circumstances of a major world financial crisis should such a thing occur at some point;

·        'Japanese Fallout May Hit Treasuries' - reading time 2 minutes.  This article discusses the issue I have raised more than once over the past few days (and again below) with respect to the possibility of Japan, the third largest holder of U.S. Treasuries after the U.S. Fed and China, having to sell some of the U.S. Treasuries it holds to fund rehabilitation projects.  The article does not discuss the effect on the U.S. Treasury market if Japan ceases to participate in that market.  I think it follows that the U.S. Treasury market will be something to watch closely over the next few months.  A second article titled 'Debt Problem: Who In The World Is Going To Buy The Billions Of Dollars Of Debt The U.S. Government Is Constantly Pumping Out Now?' - reading time 4 minutes - also addresses this issue.  I suggest you take the time to read and think about what this article says;

·        'The End of Japan as an Industrial Power' - reading time 2 minutes.  This article highlights in a chart the expected changes of the working age populations of China, Germany, Japan, and the U.S. from 2010-2020 and from 2020-2030 where working age is defined as 25-54.  At first blush I dismissed the title of the article, but after reading it and reviewing the chart I think it provides some good 'food for thought'; and,

·        'Japan depends significantly on nuclear power to meet its electricity needs' - reading time 2 minutes.  This article from the U.S. Energy Information Administration sets out in a chart with accompanying narrative the percentages of electricity generated in Japan by source, coal (28%), nuclear (27%), and natural gas (27%) being the three largest.

Topics:   Japanese Exports, Financial Markets, U.S. Treasuries, Working Age, Nuclear Power, Coal, Natural Gas
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