Ten months ago
(on May 13, 2022) Niall Ferguson gave the annual Niarchos Lecture in
Washington, D.C. Titled ‘Fiscal
Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments’,
the presentation is 22 conventionally printed pages long – reading time 30
minutes. While on one hand it may
appear this paper is out of date, in fact I don’t think it is, and think it
well worth reading. There is
little doubt that if there was perception that countries on both sides of the
Atlantic were in a debt crisis in May, 2010, that situation must be exacerbated
today. At page 10 of his paper
Ferguson sets out the six theoretical ways a country can get out of debt
crisis. They are:
·
raising the
country growth rate;
·
lowering the
interest rate on country borrowings;
·
getting bailed
out by someone else;
·
suffer fiscal
pain where taxes are raised, public spending is cut, and debt is paid off;
·
money is
printed; and,
·
defaulting.
Ferguson then comments
that with respect to the U.S. the first three of these six options are
unlikely, leaving fiscal pain, inflation (money printing) or default as
practical options. Of these,
Fergusson says history shows only one instance (Britian after 1815) where
incurring fiscal pain got things back on side – leaving money printing and
default.
Fergusson goes on to
address an issue I continually raise in these commentaries being: (1) how long
can the world’s largest debtor go on being the world’s strongest power?, (2)
how hard will it be for the U.S. to inflate its debt away as it did after 1945,
and (3) what are the geopolitical consequences of public finance crises. With respect to the latter issue
Ferguson says that history shows that in periods of fiscal stabilization:
·
discretionary
military expenditure is always the first casualty;
·
where
externally held debt is defaulted, there can be conflict with one’s creditors,
which seems to me to cause potential issues when viewed together with
reductions in discretionary military expenditures; and,
·
where there is
radical currency depreciation one’s reserve currency status can be lost.
I have said many times in
these commentaries that I see the U.S. between a very hard rock and a very hard
place given its (1) what I think is a permanent loss of manufacturing jobs, (2)
extraordinary cumulative and continuing net trade deficits, (3) high
unemployment rates which I believe to be at least in part structural in nature;
and (4) position as a major creditor to many of its trading partners.
There is an interesting Question and Answer exchange included at the end
of the paper, which includes Ferguson’s answer as to how investors should
behave in the May, 2010 environment (which I think if anything is somewhat
worsened today). Reading Niall
Ferguson’s paper did nothing but confirm my views for me. That said, I suggest you take the time
to read Ferguson’s paper carefully and think hard about what he says. I certainly found the exercise very
worthwhile.