U.S. Jobless Benefits, 'Cliff Edge'?, Copper Reports

U.S. Jobless Benefits, The 'Cliff Edge', Copper Reports

U.S. Jobless Benefits

An article yesterday titled 'The Necessary but Painful Expiration of Extended Jobless Benefits' says that at the beginning of June when the U.S. 'extended unemployment benefit package' expired:

·        there were some 5 million Americans receiving emergency benefits, of which 1.3 million lost those benefits as of last Friday, June 25;

·        the remaining 3.7 million will lose their emergency benefits at the end of October; and,

·        4 million Americans currently are receiving regular jobless benefits, and they will not have an 'emergency net' to fall back on.

I see this as being psychologically problematic for those not working and not receiving benefits - and will contribute to the 'U.S. economic whirlpool' spiraling downward ever faster.

The 'Cliff Edge'

I strongly recommend you read an article published today titled 'RBS:  Get Ready for the 'Cliff Edge''.  It is an interesting review of a research report by RBS on risk assets, with a call that markets are at risk of 'falling off the edge of the cliff'.  To me, one of the big issues in what is going on in the macro-economic environment is 'timing'.  I have little doubt that the world is very far from meaningful economic recovery.  What I don't know is whether the current 'jugglers' (read world Governments) collectively can keep all the 'batons in the air' or at some point are going to drop one or more of them on the stage floor.  Usually 'too many cooks spoil the broth', and as I see it some of the 'batons in the air' weigh more and are 'hotter' than others.  I think that some 'batons will fall on the floor' is inevitable - I just don't know how soon that is going to happen.  When it does (like Lehman Bros. in September, 2008), I say 'look out'.  In fact, I think it quite easy to view the current environment as parallel to the 'red flag' that was Bear Sterns in March, 2008 (read Greece in June, 2010) and the subsequent debacle six months later that was Lehman (read 'the next big negative economic announcement').

Copper Commentary

If you are looking for rationale for my  'think for yourself' mantra, you need to look no further than two articles published in the past few days.  The first, titled 'Copper Rises with Economic Optimism' portrays a positive outlook for copper.  The author of the second, titled 'Is Copper A Rational Market?' for multiple reasons spelled out in the article expresses uncertainty as to whether the copper market is rational.  You might consider reading each if you think 'thinking for yourself as an investor' is unimportant.

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Ian R. Campbell

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