May 14, 2010
Good Morning:
Today is a Day to Discuss
Gold
Gold is at U.S.$1,247 as I write this (9:15 a.m.
Eastern, May 14) and, as one might expect, there were even more 'gold related' articles
this morning in my basket than usual. I read many of them, and
commented on two.
The first, titled 'The Fear Premium of Gold' began
by saying "Gold prices were hitting record highs as gold's appeal as a safe haven
asset exploded", attributing this "primarily (to) concern that an almost $1 trillion
loan package in Europe will slow the region's growth and debase its currency'.
The article reports that "adjusted for inflation, gold is near its highest
since April 1981" (based on Bloomberg data). The author then
discusses the gold price in the context of ETF behavior, what it calls 'Pattern
Change - Gold & Stocks', 'Pattern Change - Gold, Dollar & Euro', Oil, and
'Fear Factors' related to Inflation, Fiat Currencies Debasement, and Sovereign Debt.
I commented on this article as follows:
Gold is up $14 this morning to $1,247 as I write
this at 7:50 a.m. Eastern Time on May 14, and directionally looks like it could
breach $1,250 today. The gold price could also, of course, retreat over the course
of the day. What will happen today, as all days in this economic environment, will
be interesting to say the least.
While there can be little doubt fear motivates
behavior, I think the real question is: How much of the rising price of gold is
driven by serious analysis of the potential inflation, deflation, developed countries
cumulative debts and budget deficits - and ultimately increasing concern that world
economic recovery is 'more in the telling' than it is 'in fact'? I think this a
very important question. As I see it if 'fear', an emotional reaction, currently
is a large influencer of the gold price then gold ought not to sustain its current
levels or go higher. If reasoned analysis is increasingly concluding the world is
going deeper and deeper into an economic morass, it may be that the gold price will
continue to increase. That said, from my perspective if the latter proves to be
the case the gold price ought to go up further (perhaps significantly) if the end
game culminates in high inflation. However, if the end game terminates in deflation
or depression, then on my analysis the gold price ought to go lower - but at the
same time ought to preserve purchasing power.
If you have read this comment, you may be interested
in visiting StockResearchPortalBlog and reading a series of 11 blog
posts I wrote 18 months ago titled 'Gold as an Investment'. You can find these posts
in the Left Navigation of the Blog.
The article is lengthy, but I think well worth reading
by those investors interested in the physical gold price and gold exploration and
production companies - click here.
A second article titled 'Gold Is No Longer 'Cheap''
says "Despite rising prices, gold doesn't feel like a bubble yet. There isn't the
same kind of mania that affected tech stocks in the 1990s or housing in the 2000s".
The author then goes on to say that he thinks that day could easily come
and stresses the importance of what he sees as the relationship between the U.S.$
and gold, commenting (paraphrased) that for gold to go much higher he believes the
U.S.$ would have to drop significantly. Click here to read this article.
I commented on this second article as follows:
As I read this article I question what the word
'cheap' means in the context of the gold price. One could say 'Stock A', a cash
flow generator that pays dividends, is 'cheap' at a given point in time as measured
against other stocks that pay dividends, or measured against its 'Peer Group' stocks.
One could say a suit is 'cheap' when its initial retail price was $800, but it was
marked down to $250. One might say a suit is 'cheap' if it was crafted from cashmere,
there was a permanent world shortage of cashmere expected to get worse, and the
asking price for the suit was $2,500.
I wonder if the author is saying 'Gold is not
Cheap' because its current price is making new highs - as I write this at 8:30 a.m.
ET, May 14 trading at $1,247. An escalating price by itself does not make something
'cheap', nor does it make it 'expensive'.
About 10 days ago I said to more than one of my
friends that intuitively I believed that by the end of May the price of physical
gold might jump by U.S$50 in a short time span from its then approximate U.S.$1,180
price. It has done that earlier than I though it might.
As I have observed things over the past few days I intuitively am beginning
to wonder if things are beginning to unravel in the world economies and equity markets.
As I repeat periodically in these e-mails I am not an investment advisor.
That said, I do follow my instincts religiously in the context of my own
investments. Interesting times. I currently
am not changing much, but I am watching and assessing things even more carefully
these days than I usually do.
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